Writen By: Jorge Méndez, Operations Director at Forest Coffee
The Colombian coffee landscape in early 2025 has been marked by both historic achievements and pressing challenges. While record-breaking production figures brought optimism to growers and exporters, the same period exposed vulnerabilities—from shifting climate patterns to growing trade tensions. In this analysis, I explore the key trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping Colombia’s coffee industry as it enters the second half of the year.
A Historic but Complex Start to 2025 for Colombian Coffee
The first half of 2025 was both remarkable and complex for Colombian coffee growers. Production reached 14.99 million bags over the past twelve months—the highest volume since 1996—thanks to favorable weather and ongoing coffee plantation renewal efforts. The first quarter alone saw a 36% increase in output.
Yet, this growth brought its own set of challenges. Irregular flowering and periods of water stress triggered off-cycle harvests, complicating planning and logistics. At the same time, fierce competition among buyers led producers to seek higher offers, which in turn caused fluctuations in supply consistency.
Climate’s Role in Shaping the Harvest
Climate remains a defining factor for Colombian coffee. El Niño and La Niña events have altered traditional harvest cycles, with drought and excess humidity affecting both quality and yield. While early 2025 benefited from stable weather, the forecast for October to December points to heavy rainfall—potentially reducing yields by around 5.3% in the 2025/26 cycle.
Rising temperatures are also pushing coffee cultivation to higher altitudes, putting pressure on smallholder farmers and gradually reducing suitable growing areas. These shifts underscore the need for adaptation to protect Colombia’s coffee future.
Coffee Prices and Global Market Trends
Global coffee prices soared in early 2025, with prices hitting $3.73 USD per pound on the New York Stock Exchange in January. This increase reflects global supply concerns driven by climate disruptions and trade tensions.
In Colombia, internal prices for a 125-kilogram bag rose by 16.3% in 2024, reflecting both global demand and currency effects. Notably, specialty coffee—now over 40% of Colombia’s output—continues to command premium prices thanks to its focus on quality and traceability.
U.S. Tariffs and Their Ripple Effects
In April, the U.S. introduced a 10% tariff on Colombian imports, including coffee, under a broader trade reciprocity policy. While Brazil faces similar measures and Vietnam even higher tariffs, the move impacts Colombia’s most important export destination.
Despite the new tariff, Colombian coffee remains highly competitive due to its quality, sustainability certifications, and strong producer relationships. The U.S. continues to be the top export market, followed by the EU and Canada—with growing interest from countries like China.
Forest Coffee’s Response: Local Support with Global Impact
In response to these shifting conditions, Forest Coffee opened its first coffee buying station in Manzanares, Caldas, as part of our Reforest project. This new hub aims to support producers in the region by providing fair, transparent, and sustainable purchasing opportunities—while also reinforcing our supply chain resilience.
But we’re not stopping at buying. At this new station, we’re also teaching producers how to roast and cup their own coffee. This hands-on training gives farmers immediate feedback on the coffees they plan to sell, helping them better understand quality expectations and refine their processing techniques.
Looking Ahead: The Second Half of 2025
After a strong first half, the road ahead brings uncertainty. Expected rainfall later in the year could reduce yields, while market volatility and buyer competition are likely to remain key challenges.
At the same time, sustainability demands, rising costs, and climate unpredictability are reshaping the industry. Yet Colombia’s continued focus on specialty coffee, innovation, and market diversification helps position the country to meet these challenges head-on.
In Summary
2025 has been a year of contrasts for Colombian coffee: record-breaking output paired with complex global and environmental challenges. Through strategic efforts like Forest Coffee’s Reforest initiative and the resilience of Colombia’s producers, the country continues to lead as a source of high-quality, sustainable coffee with a human touch.
